SEC Halts Approval of XRP ETF, Causing Cryptocurrency to Stagnate Around $3.00
In a recent development, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has extended the decision deadline for XRP ETF applications until October 24, 2025. Despite this delay, the outlook for XRP ETF approval remains optimistic, with industry analysts assigning around a 95% probability that the SEC will approve XRP ETFs during the fourth quarter of 2025.
The regulatory environment has been favourable, with SEC Chair Paul Atkins' crypto-friendly stance and the expected resolution of the Ripple vs. SEC lawsuit by mid-2025 helping to clear major legal uncertainties around XRP. Additionally, XRP futures began trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) in May 2025, which could potentially qualify spot XRP ETFs for an expedited "express lane" approval process.
BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, has reportedly dismissed speculation that it might enter the XRP ETF race, stating it has "no plans at this time." However, ETF Store president Nate Geraci suggested that BlackRock could file its own XRP ETF application in the future.
Polymarket bets on a potential XRP ETF approval before year-end remain bullish, with odds currently at 77%. The market has remained relatively stable, with XRP's price fluctuating around $2.85 to $3.00. A 5% gain was noted shortly after the delay announcement, reflecting investor confidence in eventual approval. Analysts highlight that approval could open access to $5–8 billion in new institutional capital, marking a significant growth catalyst for XRP and altcoins broadly.
Meanwhile, Ethereum ETF inflows have jumped to $729m, surpassing Bitcoin ETFs. This surge in investment could indicate a growing interest in the crypto market, particularly in Ethereum.
In summary, while the SEC is cautious, the XRP ETF market is poised for a breakthrough that could have strong positive effects on XRP’s price and broader crypto market institutionalization. The resolution of the Ripple-SEC dispute, positive regulatory changes, and the trading of XRP futures on the CME all contribute to this optimistic outlook.
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