Pigs exhibit mixed performance on Monday
In the world of agricultural commodities, lean hog futures have been experiencing a notable decline in late July 2025. Despite a slight increase in the USDA’s national base hog price and a modest rise in the CME Lean Hog Index, cash market indexes have shown mixed results.
The latest figures from the USDA estimate hog slaughter at 460,000 head for Monday, a 13,000 head increase compared to the previous week. This slight tightening in supply, coupled with the latest USDA quarterly Hog and Pig Report indicating a slight decrease in total hog inventory, supports a longer-term bullish outlook.
However, lean hog futures have been under pressure, with losses of approximately $1.27 to $2.15 across most contracts as of July 29-30, 2025. For instance, August 2025 lean hog futures closed near $107.25 on July 29, falling further to about $107.03 on July 30. October and December 2025 contracts also dropped significantly, with losses exceeding $2.00 per contract.
Pork cutout values have posted mixed results, with some weakening in primal cuts like picnics and bellies showing volatility. Bellies fell substantially at one point but have rebounded slightly.
The market shows a cautious bullish tone with key resistance and support levels. Bulls need to push August futures above $110-$113.375 to sustain upward momentum, but recent price declines indicate waning bullish power in the short term. Support levels are identified near $105-$105.875, below which further downside could unfold.
Managed money traders remain net long their highest position in six months, showing confidence despite recent pullbacks. However, current price action reveals a stalled or faltering uptrend with some profit-taking and technical selling pressure evident in the latest sessions.
In summary, lean hog futures are facing near-term downward pressure amid volatility but underpinned by slightly tighter supply fundamentals that could support prices moving forward. Traders are watching key resistance levels and supply reports closely for further directional cues. The outlook remains uncertain, with potential for stabilization or further correction.
| Aspect | Current Status | Outlook | |-----------------------|----------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------| | Price trend | Recent declines amid volatility | Short-term pressure; medium-term cautious bullishness depending on supply data | | Supply fundamentals | Slight tightening as inventory drops | Supports moderate price support | | Cash market indexes | Mild increases in CME index and base prices | Moderately supportive but mixed cutout values | | Technical outlook | Uptrend stalled; resistance near $110-$113 | Needs fresh bullish catalyst to break resistance| | Market sentiment | Managed money net long but profit-taking occurs | Uncertainty with potential for stabilization or further correction|
- In a world beyond agricultural commodities, technology-focused investors are keenly observing the current status and outlook of companies that specialize in self-driving cars, given the recent stock market declines in tech giants.
- Meanwhile, entertainment and sports industries are exploring alternative revenue streams, such as virtual reality events and esports tournaments, given the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on traditional sources of income.
