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"Michael Saylor alters MSTR stock issuance policies in a strategic move, presumably aimed at maintaining Bitcoin's value premium"

Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy's chairman, has rescinded an earlier commitment, permitting the issuance of fresh MSTR stocks, despite the mNAV (modified net asset value) dipping below 2.5 times.

Stock issuance rules flip-flopped by Michael Saylor, strategy causing Bitcoin's premium on MSTR...
Stock issuance rules flip-flopped by Michael Saylor, strategy causing Bitcoin's premium on MSTR stock to erode

"Michael Saylor alters MSTR stock issuance policies in a strategic move, presumably aimed at maintaining Bitcoin's value premium"

MicroStrategy, the business intelligence company led by CEO Michael Saylor, has been making headlines for its aggressive Bitcoin purchasing strategy. In the second quarter of this year, the company offloaded 10% of its MSTR shareholding, a move that may have been influenced by the shifting funding methods for Bitcoin purchases.

Saylor has eased the funding limits for MSTR stock issuance, allowing for more Bitcoin purchases. This change in strategy has led to a drop in the premium gap for MSTR stock, as the price of Bitcoin hitting fresh all-time highs has affected the stock's valuation.

However, this new approach has resulted in significant dilution of shareholder value, with the company raising about $12.5 billion via common stock and preferred stock offerings since 2023. This has caused concern among investors, as the stock price has underperformed.

To finance Bitcoin buying without selling existing BTC holdings, MicroStrategy is deploying a unique "BTC Credit Model" by issuing perpetual preferred stock that offers a $0.80 monthly dividend. This model, while aiming to adhere to Saylor’s "hold on for dear life" philosophy, puts financial strain on the company if Bitcoin prices fall, with risks of forced sales and net asset value declines if volatility worsens.

Despite these challenges, MicroStrategy continues to accumulate Bitcoin, currently holding approximately 632,457 BTC (valued over $72 billion). The pace of BTC purchases has slowed from billions to a few million dollars, suggesting a cautious approach amid market skepticism and shareholder dilution concerns.

For MSTR shareholders, the implications are significant. Dilution, dividend burden, volatility risk, and a long-term bet on Bitcoin are all factors that must be carefully considered. The strategy reflects a high-conviction, high-risk corporate treasury play with substantial implications for shareholder value.

Investors may also want to keep an eye on the market value-to-Bitcoin holdings ratio (mNAV), which has fallen below 2.5x, a bearish signal for the MSTR stock. Analysts predict that a further drop in the MSTR share price could occur, potentially reaching $300, forming a classic head-and-shoulder pattern.

In a recent development, Saylor has revised his strategy to allow issuing additional MSTR shares even when the mNAV is below the 2.5x threshold, marking a reversal from his earlier stand. This change may indicate a continued commitment to Bitcoin accumulation, despite the challenges it presents for shareholders.

[1] Investopedia [2] Business Insider [3] MarketWatch [4] CNBC [5] Yahoo Finance

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