Drones' Progression Not Indicating a Radical Shift
In the ongoing conflict between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in northern Iraq, drones have emerged as a significant tool in the counterinsurgency efforts.
Turkey has been expanding its network of roads and combat outposts in the region, with at least fifty miles of new roads built in the last year. These bases, strategically located, aim to establish a barrier between Turkey's border and PKK safe havens.
The Turkish minister of national defense visited one such base in May, posting pictures of sandbags overlooking mountains. However, the PKK has had decades to prepare positions in the Zap-Metîna and Ava Şîna regions, allowing it to develop a series of underground facilities.
Drones are not exclusive to the Turkish forces. Insurgents also use them to drop improvised explosives, with videos showing fixed-wing drones bombing Turkish foot patrols. The PKK has claimed to have downed at least one Turkish drone using man-portable surface-to-air missiles.
Turkey has responded by targeting PKK leadership with drone strikes, even when it risks blowback. These strikes have been successful in eliminating both low-level soldiers and senior commanders of the PKK.
The role of drones in this conflict is not without limitations. While they offer a degree of accuracy compared to conventional delivery, they are not a panacea. Drones will likely continue to be a force multiplier that favors a determined counterinsurgent, but their effectiveness is relative to the complexity of the terrain and the adaptability of the insurgents.
The use of drones in irregular warfare is not unique to Turkey. States such as Russia and Ukraine possess modern drones used against non-state actors. Russia produces cheap, single-use 'Shahed' drones, while Ukraine deployed over 4.5 million drones in 2025 for military purposes.
The debate on the effectiveness of partner military capacity building is a topic of ongoing discussion. Matthew Cancian, a PhD candidate in political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, discussed this question in Episode 3 of the Irregular Warfare Podcast. Cancian's thesis is about the motivations of combatants and the effects of training, based on a survey of 2,301 Kurdish fighters (Peshmerga) during their war against the Islamic State.
As the conflict in northern Iraq continues, the role of drones will undoubtedly evolve. When PKK fighters do emerge from their subterranean lairs, they rely on camouflage such as ghillie suits or white umbrellas in the snow. The counterinsurgents, in turn, continue to widely use drones for both observation and striking the PKK. The battlefield may shift, but the reliance on drones in this asymmetric conflict seems set to endure.
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