AI Trade Booms in H1 2025, But Global Slowdown Looms in 2026
The first half of 2025 saw a significant boom in artificial intelligence (AI)-related trade, with these products contributing nearly half of the overall trade growth. This is despite making up less than a tenth of the world's merchandise trade. However, experts warn that the global trade slowdown in 2026 will be driven by a cooling global economy and the full impact of higher tariffs.
The surge in AI-related trade was largely driven by the expansion of goods such as semiconductors and processors, which grew by more than 20% in the first half of 2025. This growth was supported by technological advancements, increased adoption in various sectors like healthcare and finance, and favorable regulatory environments in many countries. Key regions and companies leading this growth include Silicon Valley, Asia, and Europe, with tech giants like Google, Microsoft, and Amazon at the forefront. However, the full impact of US President Donald Trump's tariffs is expected to be felt in 2026, potentially slowing down this growth.
Despite the resilient first half of 2025, the growth of global goods trade is expected to slow sharply in 2026. Merchandise trade volumes are forecast to rise 2.4% in 2025, faster than previously predicted, but the expected trade growth for 2026 has been downgraded to 0.5%. The global trade slowdown in 2026 will be influenced by a cooling global economy and the full impact of higher tariffs.
