AGI Predicted Before 22nd Century as Experts Accelerate Timelines
The advent of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is expected to bring substantial changes to human society, and the nature of these changes will be shaped by human decisions. Experts' predictions for AGI's arrival vary widely, from the near future to the end of the 21st century.
A recent macro analysis of surveys spanning 15 years reveals shifts in predictions about AGI, particularly after the emergence of large language models like ChatGPT. Most experts now concur that AGI will arrive before the 22nd century.
The arrival of large language models has accelerated these predictions. Scientists now estimate AGI's arrival around 2040, while entrepreneurs predict it by 2030. This acceleration is partly driven by increasing computing power, following Moore's Law, and the potential of quantum computing. However, not all experts believe AGI is inevitable, arguing that human intelligence's multifaceted nature cannot be fully replicated by machines.
AGI's arrival, predicted by most experts before the 22nd century, will significantly impact society. Its nature will depend on human decision-making. While AI can aid in discoveries, it cannot make them independently. The debate continues among experts, with some believing AGI is inevitable due to advancements in computing power.
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